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MAJOR TRENDS: Good news, bad news & new priorities

The good news is that the rates of serious (or Index) crimes in Michigan continue to decline, reflecting national trends. Confirming the adage that success has many parents, while failure is an orphan, there are many reasons cited for this welcome decline:

• a (temporary) reduction in the number of males in their most crime-prone youthful years,
  
• the expansion of community policing,
  
• more police on the street,
  
• new federal gun control laws,
  
• higher rates of incarceration based on

  1. longer sentences,
     
  2. a greater percentage of the sentence is served (reduction in good time),
  3. and more mandatory minimum sentences
  
  
• the apparent shake-out in the drugs wars, and
  
• the decline in unemployment.

Many, if not all, of the reasons cited above appear to play a role in the overall reduction of crime in Michigan. But the challenge remains determining an effective, affordable, and just crime policy for the future, and there is no group with greater reason to care than crime victims, who know firsthand the price that people pay in blood, money, health, and fear.

This section of the Crime in Michigan portion of the Michigan Crime Victims website looks at the number of serious crimes reported to police, the changes in their rates over time, and the actual number of arrests made for those offenses.

Reported Crime, Rates & Arrests

Keep in mind, however, that rates of reported crime can be deceiving. Research confirms that only one in every three crimes committed in the United States is ever reported to police -- only two in five violent crimes. So the best way to view these figures is not as a picture of the actual amount of crime in the state, but as a comparison of trends over time.

However, making comparisons over time also has its problems. We think of murder as the crime most likely to be reported -- if you find a body, chances are that you will call police. But the decline in murder rates now compared to years ago could also reflect advances in medical care, which means that we are saving more victims today than we did in the past. Understanding crime statistics requires careful analysis, and, unfortunately, there is far too little research in this area.

Even a quick scan of the data underscores the good news that rates of serious crime are dropping. In fact, comparisons between 1996, the most recent year for which data are available, and 1985 show declines for all but one of the so-called Index crimes. Yet there is a worrisome blip in the figures for aggravated assault. While the there is a year-to-year decline in these assaults in recent years, it is the only one of the Index crimes whose rate today is higher than it was in 1985. Does this mean that the actual rate of aggravated assault has risen, or does this mean only that people are more likely to report this crime to police?

The optimistic view is that because of increased emphasis on family violence in Michigan, people are quicker to turn to police for answers with this complex problem -- that the increase is an artifact of reporting, not an actual increase in the crime rate.

The pessimistic view, however, is that rates are actually higher today than in 1985 because the pressures of modern life have caused an increase in aggravated assaults. Perhaps part of the key lies in looking at the dramatic increase in arrest figures, which support the increasing emphasis on using arrest as a tool in dealing with domestic violence.

There is concern that the rates of violence in Michigan and indeed in the entire United States are beyond what other nations like ours endure. The goal is for all of us to educate ourselves about these issues, so that we can help to make Michigan a better and safer place in which to live and work.

1996 OFFENSES AND CRIME RATES FOR MICHIGAN
Index Crimes

1996	1995	1991	1985
699 CR: 8 A: 1,209	785 CR: 8 A: 1,419	1,003 CR: 11 A: 1,973	1,019 CR: 11 A: 1,221

RAPE
CR= Crime Rate (rate per 100,000 people)
A=Actual Number of Arrests

1996	1995	1991	1985
5,066 CR: 55 A: 1,721	5,560 CR: 60 A: 1,700	7,248 CR: 79 A: 2,278	6,131 CR: 66 2,422

ROBBERY
CR= Crime Rate (rate per 100,000 people)
A=Actual Number of Arrests

1996	1995	1991	1985
16,288 CR: 175 A: 3,731	17,365 CR: 187 A: 4,087	22,574 CR: 248 5,248	26,548 CR: 289 A: 5,157

LARCENY
CR= Crime Rate (rate per 100,000 people)
A=Actual Number of Arrests

1996	1995	1991	1985
248,571 CR: 2,674 A: 31,787	256,958 CR: 2,764 A: 32,721	317,248 CR: 3,486 A: 47,324	296,808 CR: 3,239 36,408

BURGLARY
CR= Crime Rate (rate per 100,000 people)
A=Actual Number of Arrests

1996	1995	1991	1985
79,066 CR: 851 A: 8,258	81,314 CR: 875 A: 9,023	109,368 CR: 1,202 A: 11,413	138,518 CR: 1,511 A: 13,181

AGGRAVATED ASSAULT
CR= Crime Rate (rate per 100,000 people)
A=Actual Number of Arrests

1996	1995	1991	1985
35,762 CR: 385 A: 14,546	38,983 CR: 419 A: 15,446	43,378 CR: 476 A: 13,931	32,941 CR: 359 A: 9,861

MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
CR= Crime Rate (rate per 100,000 people)
A=Actual Number of Arrests

1996	1995	1991	1985
62,930 CR: 677 A: 3,139	57,895 CR: 623 A: 3,297	62,636 CR: 688 A: 4,067	75,123 CR: 819 A: 3,951

ARSON
CR= Crime Rate (rate per 100,000 people)
A=Actual Number of Arrests

1996	1995	1991	1985
4,547 CR: 49 A: 677	4,004 CR: 43 A: 743	4,739 CR: 52 A: 603	5,182 CR: 56 A: 847

TOTAL INDEX CRIMES
CR= Crime Rate (rate per 100,000 people)
A=Actual Number of Arrests

1996	1995	1991	1985
452,929 CR: 4,873 A: 65,068	462,864 CR: 4,979 A: 68,436	568,194 CR: 6,244 A: 86,837	582,270 CR: 6,287 A: 73,048